Why Everything Feels More Expensive
Inflation, price gouging, and shrinkflation can all raise your costs—but they’re not the same. Here’s how to tell what’s happening, and what to do next.
By TheMurrow Editorial
January 24, 2026
Key Points
- 1Recognize the mechanism: inflation is broad price growth, gouging is emergency-linked and legalistic, and shrinkflation raises unit costs by shrinking packages.
- 2Interpret headlines correctly: “inflation is down” means the rate slowed—prices stayed high, and hot categories like utilities and shelter can still surge.
- 3Act with targeted tools: compare unit prices, track a personal mini-CPI, and report extreme emergency essential spikes to your state attorney general.
The receipt is the new emotional weather report
The receipt is the new emotional weather report.
You can feel it in a $9 sandwich that used to be $6, in a grocery bag that looks full but feeds fewer nights, in an electric bill that seems to ignore the news that “inflation is down.” The official numbers say price growth has cooled. Your bank app says you’re still sliding backward.
So the question people ask—at the kitchen table, in group chats, at the gas pump—is sharper than “What’s inflation?” It’s more accusatory, more personal: Is this inflation…or are companies just ripping us off?
The honest answer is that both dynamics can be true at once. But they’re not the same thing, and treating them as interchangeable makes it harder to diagnose what’s actually happening—and what, if anything, you can do about it.
You can feel it in a $9 sandwich that used to be $6, in a grocery bag that looks full but feeds fewer nights, in an electric bill that seems to ignore the news that “inflation is down.” The official numbers say price growth has cooled. Your bank app says you’re still sliding backward.
So the question people ask—at the kitchen table, in group chats, at the gas pump—is sharper than “What’s inflation?” It’s more accusatory, more personal: Is this inflation…or are companies just ripping us off?
The honest answer is that both dynamics can be true at once. But they’re not the same thing, and treating them as interchangeable makes it harder to diagnose what’s actually happening—and what, if anything, you can do about it.
A lower inflation rate doesn’t mean prices went back down. It means they climbed more slowly from an already higher rung.
— — TheMurrow Editorial
Inflation, price gouging, shrinkflation: three different stories hiding in one complaint
Public frustration often bundles three distinct phenomena into one word: greed. Economists, regulators, and consumer advocates use more precise labels because the causes—and remedies—differ.
What inflation is (and isn’t)
Inflation is the broad-based rise in overall prices across an economy over time. In the U.S., the most widely cited measure is the Consumer Price Index (CPI) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). CPI tracks price changes across a “basket” of goods and services—everything from rent to cereal to haircuts. (BLS CPI: bls.gov/cpi)
Inflation has many potential drivers: demand surges, supply shocks, housing costs, wage growth, commodity prices, and expectations. The unifying feature is breadth—price increases spread across categories, not just one brand or one aisle.
Inflation has many potential drivers: demand surges, supply shocks, housing costs, wage growth, commodity prices, and expectations. The unifying feature is breadth—price increases spread across categories, not just one brand or one aisle.
What “price gouging” means in U.S. law
Price gouging is not a catch-all term for “prices I don’t like.” In U.S. consumer protection law, it usually refers to sharp, “unconscionable” price increases for necessities during declared emergencies—the hurricane-water and wildfire-hotel stories. The details vary by state, and enforcement typically runs through state attorneys general.
The National Conference of State Legislatures (NCSL) reports that 39 states plus D.C. and territories have statutes or regulations addressing price gouging in disasters or emergencies (updated Jan. 21, 2025). (ncsl.org)
That matters because many everyday price shocks happen outside a declared emergency. They may feel exploitative, but they often don’t meet a legal threshold.
The National Conference of State Legislatures (NCSL) reports that 39 states plus D.C. and territories have statutes or regulations addressing price gouging in disasters or emergencies (updated Jan. 21, 2025). (ncsl.org)
That matters because many everyday price shocks happen outside a declared emergency. They may feel exploitative, but they often don’t meet a legal threshold.
39 states + D.C. and territories
NCSL reports that 39 states plus D.C. and territories have statutes or regulations addressing price gouging in disasters or emergencies (updated Jan. 21, 2025).
Shrinkflation: when the price stays, but the product shrinks
Then there’s shrinkflation—a product-level tactic where a package gets smaller while the sticker price stays similar (or rises), pushing up the unit price. Consumer researchers also flag “skimpflation,” where ingredients or quality quietly degrade. The consumer pain is real even when the shelf tag barely changes. (Which? on shrinkflation/skimpflation)
Gouging is a legal concept tied to emergencies. ‘Companies have pricing power’ is an economic story—and it can happen on an ordinary Tuesday.
— — TheMurrow Editorial
“Inflation is down” vs. “My costs are up”: the rate and the level are not the same
A big part of the national confusion is arithmetic dressed up as lived experience.
Inflation is a rate of change. Your bills are the price level. When headlines say inflation is falling, they mean the rate of increase is slowing—not that prices are reversing.
Inflation is a rate of change. Your bills are the price level. When headlines say inflation is falling, they mean the rate of increase is slowing—not that prices are reversing.
The latest CPI snapshot: cooler overall, still hot in the places you feel
The BLS December 2025 CPI report (released Jan. 13, 2026) offers a clean example of why people can feel squeezed even with inflation near what policymakers consider “normal.”
Key numbers (12-month change, not seasonally adjusted):
- All items CPI: +2.7% year-over-year
- Core CPI (less food & energy): +2.6% year-over-year
- Food: +3.1%
- Food at home (groceries): +2.4%
- Food away from home: +4.1%
- Shelter: +3.2%
- Electricity: +6.7%
- Natural gas (piped): +10.8%
- Gasoline: -3.4%
Source: BLS CPI. (bls.gov/cpi)
Those category splits explain dinner-table whiplash. If your household drives a lot, the -3.4% gasoline number might feel like relief. If you heat your home with gas or your utility costs run hot, +6.7% electricity and +10.8% piped natural gas can erase that relief quickly.
Key numbers (12-month change, not seasonally adjusted):
- All items CPI: +2.7% year-over-year
- Core CPI (less food & energy): +2.6% year-over-year
- Food: +3.1%
- Food at home (groceries): +2.4%
- Food away from home: +4.1%
- Shelter: +3.2%
- Electricity: +6.7%
- Natural gas (piped): +10.8%
- Gasoline: -3.4%
Source: BLS CPI. (bls.gov/cpi)
Those category splits explain dinner-table whiplash. If your household drives a lot, the -3.4% gasoline number might feel like relief. If you heat your home with gas or your utility costs run hot, +6.7% electricity and +10.8% piped natural gas can erase that relief quickly.
+2.7%
All items CPI rose 2.7% year-over-year in the BLS December 2025 CPI report (released Jan. 13, 2026).
+10.8%
Piped natural gas prices rose 10.8% year-over-year in December 2025 CPI data—enough to overwhelm relief elsewhere for many households.
Disinflation is not deflation—and it doesn’t refund last year
A cooling CPI means prices are rising more slowly now. But the level may still reflect several years of earlier jumps. Many households absorb that as a permanent downgrade: you’ve already paid the higher price, and you’re still paying it.
The next CPI release—January 2026 data—is scheduled for Feb. 11, 2026, according to the BLS. That monthly cadence can create a second confusion: a single encouraging report doesn’t rewind months of elevated costs, and it can’t solve category-specific pain, especially shelter and utilities.
The next CPI release—January 2026 data—is scheduled for Feb. 11, 2026, according to the BLS. That monthly cadence can create a second confusion: a single encouraging report doesn’t rewind months of elevated costs, and it can’t solve category-specific pain, especially shelter and utilities.
Feb. 11, 2026
The BLS scheduled the next release—January 2026 CPI data—for Feb. 11, 2026.
The “gouging” question: why most everyday price anger doesn’t fit the legal definition
When consumers say “gouging,” they usually mean “unfair.” The law tends to mean “emergency exploitation.”
How price gouging laws typically work
Most U.S. price gouging laws are state-level and often activated by a declared emergency—hurricanes, wildfires, severe winter storms. The aim is narrow: stop merchants from taking advantage of urgent need when people can’t shop around.
NCSL’s tally—39 states plus D.C. and territories with relevant statutes or regulations—signals how common this framework is. But that same framework limits its reach. If there’s no declared emergency, the “gouging” label may not apply even if price jumps feel extreme.
NCSL’s tally—39 states plus D.C. and territories with relevant statutes or regulations—signals how common this framework is. But that same framework limits its reach. If there’s no declared emergency, the “gouging” label may not apply even if price jumps feel extreme.
Why your “regular life” examples often fall outside
Consider the everyday gripes: restaurant menu prices, subscription fees, snack foods that cost more per ounce. These may be driven by cost pressures, demand shifts, or strategic pricing decisions. Unless the price spike hits a defined “necessity” during a declared emergency and meets a state’s threshold for “unconscionable,” regulators may have little to prosecute under “price gouging” statutes.
That gap fuels cynicism. People assume the absence of enforcement means the conduct must be acceptable. More often, it means the conduct falls into a different bucket: market pricing power—a live economic debate, not always a legal violation.
That gap fuels cynicism. People assume the absence of enforcement means the conduct must be acceptable. More often, it means the conduct falls into a different bucket: market pricing power—a live economic debate, not always a legal violation.
The law mostly targets disaster profiteering. Your grocery bill is usually shaped by something murkier: market power, costs, and quiet tactics like shrinkflation.
— — TheMurrow Editorial
Shrinkflation: the stealth tax that doesn’t show up on the shelf tag
Shrinkflation earns its outrage because it feels like a trick. The sticker price stays familiar, but value slips away in the fine print of ounces, counts, and servings.
Why shrinkflation works so well (and why it keeps happening)
Shrinkflation exploits how humans scan shelves. Most shoppers compare brand-to-brand price faster than they compare unit price. A package redesign can obscure size reductions, and even careful shoppers may not remember last month’s weight or count.
Consumer advocates have documented how shrinkflation and “skimpflation” can travel together: less product and lower quality. Which? describes both patterns, with shrinkflation reducing size and skimpflation swapping in cheaper ingredients or downgrading quality. (Which?)
Consumer advocates have documented how shrinkflation and “skimpflation” can travel together: less product and lower quality. Which? describes both patterns, with shrinkflation reducing size and skimpflation swapping in cheaper ingredients or downgrading quality. (Which?)
The practical consequence: inflation can look tame while your unit costs climb
A key reason shrinkflation intensifies anger is that it scrambles people’s sense of whether “inflation is improving.” Official inflation measures aim to track comparable items, but your lived experience is product-specific and brand-specific.
If your household’s staples quietly shrink, you end up rebuying sooner. You don’t always register it as a price increase. You register it as a pantry that empties faster—and a budget that can’t catch up.
If your household’s staples quietly shrink, you end up rebuying sooner. You don’t always register it as a price increase. You register it as a pantry that empties faster—and a budget that can’t catch up.
Key Insight
Shrinkflation often hides in plain sight: the shelf price looks familiar, but the unit price rises as ounces, counts, or servings quietly shrink.
Why some prices keep rising even when overall inflation cools
Even with headline CPI near the mid‑2% range, several categories can stay stubborn.
Shelter: the slow-moving heavyweight
Shelter inflation tends to move gradually because leases roll over and housing markets adjust slowly. In the BLS December 2025 snapshot, shelter was +3.2% year-over-year—higher than the overall CPI pace. When rent, homeowners’ equivalent rent, and related costs rise, they don’t just affect one purchase. They reshape everything else you can afford.
Food away from home: the “I can’t even grab lunch” effect
The BLS reported food away from home at +4.1% over 12 months, above food at home (+2.4%). That gap matters culturally as much as economically. Eating out is often where households feel price changes most vividly because menus update frequently and the totals are unmissable.
From a business perspective, restaurants face labor, rent, and input costs. From a consumer perspective, the experience is simple: the same lunch now costs meaningfully more.
From a business perspective, restaurants face labor, rent, and input costs. From a consumer perspective, the experience is simple: the same lunch now costs meaningfully more.
Utilities: the bills that don’t negotiate
Energy is where macro trends collide with household fragility. In December 2025, electricity was +6.7% and piped natural gas +10.8% year-over-year, even as gasoline fell -3.4%. Many households can cut discretionary spending; they cannot easily cut heating and cooling without discomfort or risk.
This is why “inflation is down” can sound almost insulting. The basket may be cooling. The bills that feel mandatory may not be.
This is why “inflation is down” can sound almost insulting. The basket may be cooling. The bills that feel mandatory may not be.
“Are companies just greedy?” What economics can say—and what it can’t
People want a single villain. Reality is less satisfying: many price moves are a blend of costs, competition, and corporate strategy.
Pricing power isn’t the same as gouging—and it isn’t always illegal
A company can raise prices because costs rose. A company can also raise prices because consumers will pay and competitors won’t undercut. That second scenario—pricing power—often becomes visible after disruptions, when shoppers are already braced for increases and brands test higher price points.
None of that requires an emergency declaration. None of it automatically violates price-gouging laws. It can still be worth scrutinizing, politically and socially, but it lives in the realm of market structure and corporate behavior more than disaster profiteering statutes.
None of that requires an emergency declaration. None of it automatically violates price-gouging laws. It can still be worth scrutinizing, politically and socially, but it lives in the realm of market structure and corporate behavior more than disaster profiteering statutes.
A fair-minded view: businesses face real pressures too
It’s easy to treat every price hike as cynical. But the BLS category data itself hints at the cost environment. If shelter costs and utilities rise faster than the headline rate, businesses that rent space and pay energy bills face the same pressure households do.
At the same time, consumer anger isn’t irrational. The emotional sting comes from asymmetry: prices rise quickly, but they rarely fall; packages shrink quietly; wages don’t rise evenly for everyone. Even when inflation cools to 2–3%, the recovery in affordability can lag for years.
At the same time, consumer anger isn’t irrational. The emotional sting comes from asymmetry: prices rise quickly, but they rarely fall; packages shrink quietly; wages don’t rise evenly for everyone. Even when inflation cools to 2–3%, the recovery in affordability can lag for years.
How to tell what you’re dealing with—and what to do next
You don’t need an economics degree to separate “inflation” from “I’m getting played.” You need a few practical tests.
A quick diagnostic checklist
When a price jumps, ask:
- Is it broad-based? If many categories are rising, you’re likely seeing macro inflation pressures.
- Is it tied to an emergency? If a hurricane, wildfire, or winter storm triggered a declared emergency and necessities spiked, that may fit legal “price gouging” frameworks (varies by state).
- Did the product change? Check ounces, counts, and unit price. A stable sticker price with a smaller package is classic shrinkflation.
- Is the category one that’s still running hot? BLS data show some categories rising faster than headline CPI—like food away from home (+4.1%), shelter (+3.2%), and utilities (electricity +6.7%, natural gas +10.8%) in December 2025.
- Is it broad-based? If many categories are rising, you’re likely seeing macro inflation pressures.
- Is it tied to an emergency? If a hurricane, wildfire, or winter storm triggered a declared emergency and necessities spiked, that may fit legal “price gouging” frameworks (varies by state).
- Did the product change? Check ounces, counts, and unit price. A stable sticker price with a smaller package is classic shrinkflation.
- Is the category one that’s still running hot? BLS data show some categories rising faster than headline CPI—like food away from home (+4.1%), shelter (+3.2%), and utilities (electricity +6.7%, natural gas +10.8%) in December 2025.
Quick diagnostic checklist
- ✓Is it broad-based?
- ✓Is it tied to an emergency?
- ✓Did the product change?
- ✓Is the category one that’s still running hot?
Smart, realistic moves for consumers
Practical steps that match the problem:
- Use unit pricing aggressively for groceries and household staples. Shrinkflation loses power when shoppers compare price per ounce or per count.
- Track a personal “mini-CPI.” If your budget is dominated by rent, childcare, and utilities, headline CPI will never describe your life. Build a simple monthly list of your top 15 repeat expenses.
- Know when “gouging” is reportable. If you see extreme increases for essentials during a declared emergency, document prices and report to your state attorney general’s consumer protection office. (Your state’s rules determine thresholds and covered goods.)
None of these fixes the macro economy. But they restore a measure of agency—and, just as important, clarity.
- Use unit pricing aggressively for groceries and household staples. Shrinkflation loses power when shoppers compare price per ounce or per count.
- Track a personal “mini-CPI.” If your budget is dominated by rent, childcare, and utilities, headline CPI will never describe your life. Build a simple monthly list of your top 15 repeat expenses.
- Know when “gouging” is reportable. If you see extreme increases for essentials during a declared emergency, document prices and report to your state attorney general’s consumer protection office. (Your state’s rules determine thresholds and covered goods.)
None of these fixes the macro economy. But they restore a measure of agency—and, just as important, clarity.
What to do next (matched to the mechanism)
Shrinkflation: Compare unit prices (per ounce/count) and double-check net weight and servings.
Inflation pressure: Watch broad category moves (CPI) and focus budgeting on your biggest recurring costs.
Possible gouging: During declared emergencies, document essentials price spikes and report to your state AG’s consumer protection office.
Inflation pressure: Watch broad category moves (CPI) and focus budgeting on your biggest recurring costs.
Possible gouging: During declared emergencies, document essentials price spikes and report to your state AG’s consumer protection office.
Conclusion: the real question isn’t “Is it inflation or greed?” It’s “Which mechanism is hitting me—and is anyone accountable?”
CPI data show inflation has cooled: 2.7% headline and 2.6% core in December 2025, according to the BLS. That’s a meaningful shift from the years when price growth felt like a monthly ambush. Yet the category details also validate what households feel: utilities and food away from home are still rising faster than the overall pace, and shelter remains a slow-moving weight.
Meanwhile, the word “gouging” continues to do too much work. Under U.S. law, gouging is usually an emergency story, and 39 states plus D.C. and territories have some form of statute or regulation aimed at those moments, per NCSL. That’s crucial protection—just not a universal explanation for the daily grind.
The more unsettling truth is that a lot of what feels like “ripping us off” lives in the gray zone: strategic pricing, market power, and tactics like shrinkflation that raise unit costs without raising alarms. Naming the right mechanism doesn’t instantly lower your bills. It does something else, quieter but necessary: it makes accountability possible.
Meanwhile, the word “gouging” continues to do too much work. Under U.S. law, gouging is usually an emergency story, and 39 states plus D.C. and territories have some form of statute or regulation aimed at those moments, per NCSL. That’s crucial protection—just not a universal explanation for the daily grind.
The more unsettling truth is that a lot of what feels like “ripping us off” lives in the gray zone: strategic pricing, market power, and tactics like shrinkflation that raise unit costs without raising alarms. Naming the right mechanism doesn’t instantly lower your bills. It does something else, quieter but necessary: it makes accountability possible.
T
About the Author
TheMurrow Editorial is a writer for TheMurrow covering explainers.
Frequently Asked Questions
If inflation is 2.7%, why aren’t prices going back down?
Because 2.7% is the rate of increase over the past year, not a reversal. Prices can still be much higher than they were a few years ago; they’re just rising more slowly now. Falling prices across the board would be deflation, which is different from disinflation (slower inflation).
What’s the difference between CPI and “core” CPI?
CPI measures price changes across a broad basket of goods and services. Core CPI removes food and energy because those categories can be volatile. In December 2025, the BLS reported 2.7% headline CPI and 2.6% core CPI year-over-year, offering two lenses on the same economy.
Is price gouging illegal everywhere in the U.S.?
Not in a single uniform way. Price gouging laws are mostly state-level and often tied to declared emergencies. The NCSL reports 39 states plus D.C. and territories have statutes or regulations addressing gouging in disasters or emergencies, typically enforced through consumer protection frameworks.
What counts as price gouging versus just “high prices”?
Typically, gouging involves sharp, “unconscionable” price increases for necessities during a declared emergency—rules vary by state. High prices during normal times can be driven by costs or competition and may be legal even if they feel unfair. The key triggers are emergency status, necessity, and the scale of the increase.
How can I spot shrinkflation quickly?
Look past the sticker price. Check:
- Net weight/ounces
- Count (number of items)
- Servings per package
Then compare the unit price (price per ounce or per item). Shrinkflation often shows up as a smaller package with a familiar price, meaning you pay more per unit without noticing.
Which categories were still rising faster in the latest CPI report?
In the BLS December 2025 data, several categories outpaced the headline rate: food away from home (+4.1%), shelter (+3.2%), electricity (+6.7%), and piped natural gas (+10.8%) year-over-year. Meanwhile, gasoline fell (-3.4%), showing how mixed household experiences can be.
